内容概要
自从2010年中国首次进军巴西电力行业以来，短短10年的时间通过并购和项目建设方式，中国已经从“萌新”发展成为巴西电力行业的主要参与者。截至2019年，至少有14家中国电力企业在巴西投资或参与建设项目，总价值高达365亿美元。尽管到目前为止，水力发电一直是重点，但风能和太阳能发电行业前途光明。
丝路中心（BRICC）对相关报道进行转译，供读者参考。
Chinese electric power corporations have been deeply integrated in Brazil's electricity sector since their first investment in the country in 2010 (Image:Alamy)
自2010年中国对巴西电力行业进行首次投资以来，中国的电力公司现如今已融入巴西的电力行业各个领域。
It took less than a decade for Chinese investors to go from the “new kids on the block” to key players in the Brazilian electricity sector, achieved through a combination of acquisitions and new projects since its first major investment in Brazil in 2010.
自从2010年中国首次进军巴西电力行业以来，短短10年的时间通过并购和项目建设方式，中国已经从“萌新”发展成为巴西电力行业的主要参与者。
By 2019, no less than 14 Chinese electric power corporations had invested or were involved in construction projects in Brazil worth US$36.5 billion. Generation is the preferred sector and renewable sources, such as hydro and wind power, have received largest share of investments.
截至2019年，至少有14家中国电力企业在巴西投资或参与建设项目，总价值高达365亿美元。电力行业是首选行业，其中水电和风电等可再生能源获得的投资份额最大。
These are some of the findings of a new working paper published by the Boston University Global Development Policy Center (GDP Center). In it, I analyse the historical evolution, features, trends, and future opportunities of Chinese investments in Brazil’s electricity sector.
这些是波士顿大学全球发展政策中心发表的一份新工作报告中的一些发现。这篇文章分析了中国在巴西电力行业投资的历史演变、特点、趋势和未来的发展机会。
One major discernible trend is the fact that most Chinese companies’ installed capacity in Brazil is in renewable energy. This contrasts with the dominance of coal in their overall power generation portfolio in other countries, as the GDP Center’s China’s Global Power Database shows. The Brazilian case shows that Chinese players focus their energy investments where the host country has a natural advantage or an abundance of resources.
一个明显的趋势是，中国企业在巴西的投资大都集中在可再生能源领域。这与国内生产总值中心中国全球电力数据库显示的煤炭在其他国家发电组合中的主导地位形成了鲜明对比。巴西的情况表明，中国企业将能源投资重点放在东道国自然资源丰富的地方。
This significant amount of capital invested has allowed Chinese firms to become the leading foreign players in Brazil’s electricity sector. As of 2019, they represented 10%, 12%, and 12% of the country’s generation, transmission, and distribution segments respectively. They rank second, third, and fourth places in terms of nationalities’ percentages.
如此巨额的投资使得中国企业成为巴西电力行业的主要外国企业。截至2019年，中国分别占巴西发电、输电和配电领域的10%、12%和12%。就国籍比例而言，他们排名第二、第三和第四。
State Grid and China Three Gorges Corporation (CTG) are the pioneering Chinese firms in Brazil, which became the destination of more than half of their overseas spending. In the generation segment, CTG is already the second largest electricity generator. Some 48% of Sao Paulo state’s hydro generation is in the hands of Chinese actors.
国家电网和中国三峡公司是中国在巴西电力行业的先驱，巴西成为其超过一半海外投资的目的地。在电力行业，中国三峡公司的发电量位居第二位。圣保罗州48%的水力发电量由中国企业提供。
Besides acquisitions of local firms, Chinese corporations were involved in new projects, such as Belo Monte dam’s giant transmission lines, built by State Grid. They are strategically relevant to Brazil’s energy security, since they help to alleviate the bottleneck between supply and demand. They also brought new, ultra-high voltage (UHV) technology to the country.
除了收购当地公司，中国公司也参与开发新项目，比如国家电网建设的贝罗蒙特大坝的巨型输电线路。该线路缓解了电力供需之间的不平衡状况，对巴西的能源安全具有战略意义。除此之外，中国企业还在巴西开发和使用了新的超高压(特高压)技术。
Chinese electricity projects in Brazil are part of an international investment push in the sector that gained strength after the 2008 global financial crisis. Chinese firms are among the leading investors in the global power segment, usually backed by policy banks China Development Bank and the Export Import Bank of China, nowadays the world’s major provider of energy finance. Brazil is at the forefront of this global expansion as most of China’s overseas power generation assets are concentrated there.
中国在巴西的电力项目是自2008年全球金融危机后，国际投资推动该行业发展的重要部分。中国企业是全球电力领域的主要投资者之一，这些投资通常由中国国家开发银行（China Development Bank）和中国进出口银行（Export Import Bank of China）提供支持，后者如今是全球主要的能源融资提供机构。由于中国大部分海外发电资产都集中在巴西，巴西目前是中国全球扩张的前沿阵地。
Chinese companies will continue to be decisive players in the overall expansion of the Brazilian electricity sector for decades to come
在未来几十年里，中国企业将继续在巴西电力行业的整体扩张中发挥决定性作用。
There are multiple reasons for this preference. Among them, Brazil’s still vast untapped energy resources offer a land of business opportunities. The country is the world’s third most attractive country for foreign direct investment in renewables, one position above China, according to Bloomberg NEF. Furthermore, in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, international investors suffered from debt crises and liquidity shortages. Several North American and European companies sold their overseas subsidiaries, some were acquired by Chinese counterparts.
巴西能够大量吸引外资有其独特的优势。巴西仍有大量未开发的能源资源，商业前景巨大。根据彭博新能源财经(Bloomberg NEF)的数据，巴西是世界上对可再生能源外国直接投资最具吸引力的第三大国家，排在中国之前一位。此外，在2008年金融危机之后，国际投资者遭受了债务危机和流动性短缺。几家北美和欧洲公司出售了它们的海外子公司，其中一些被中国同行收购。
Brazil also suffered the impact of the global downturn and experienced deteriorating macroeconomic conditions from 2013 onwards. The outbreak of a corruption scandal in 2014 has weakened several national concessionaires, and some needed to disinvest energy assets. One example is major Brazilian electricity company CPFL, bought by State Grid.
巴西也受到了全球经济衰退的影响，2013年以来宏观经济状况不断恶化。2014年爆发的腐败丑闻削弱了几家国家特许经营企业的实力，其中一些企业需要减少对能源资产的投资。被国家电网收购的巴西大型电力公司CPFL就是其中一个例子。
Chinese electric investments in Brazil are also part of an ongoing trend of the country’s power firms buying energy assets across Latin America, whose countries, equally, have undergone economic crises in recent years. This scenario has offered a business opportunity not only to acquire energy assets, but also to export services and further develop native Chinese technologies, such as UHV transmission.
中国在巴西的电力投资只是国家电力公司在拉美各地收购能源资产的一部分。拉美国家近年来同样经历了经济危机，这给中国公司提供了难得的商业机会，中国企业不仅可以通过收购能源资产，还可以通过出口服务和进一步开发中国本土技术（如特高压输电）来进行投资。
In 2019, roughly half of Chinese M&A activity in Latin American and the Caribbean was in the electricity sector, according to the GDP Center’s China-Latin America Economic Bulletin. Renewable energy projects received most of the funds, and Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Mexico were among the top recipient countries. Standout deals include State Grid’s recent purchase of the Chilean power distributor CGE and the sale of Zuma Energia, Mexico’s largest renewable energy company, to State Power Investment Corp.
GDP中心的《中国-拉美经济公报》显示，2019年，中国在拉美和加勒比地区的并购活动约有一半集中在电力行业。可再生能源项目获得了量的资金，巴西、智利、秘鲁和墨西哥是最大的外商投资国。其中比较引人关注的交易包括国家电网最近收购智利电力分销商CGE，以及国家电力投资公司收购墨西哥最大的可再生能源公司祖玛能源。
Chinese recent investments in Brazil hint at future trends. For the first time, in 2019 wind and solar power projects received preferential treatment from Chinese investors. In a break from the past, most of this recent investment was in greenfield projects, demonstrating business choices in line with Brazilian policy incentives and a willingness to explore the country’s natural endowment.
中国近期在巴西的投资也预示了未来的发展趋势。2019年，风能和太阳能项目的中国投资者首次获得了的优惠待遇。与过去不同的是，近几年的的投资大多是绿地项目，这表明中国企业的商业选择符合巴西的政策激励导向，也表明巴西政府愿意探索该国的自然资源。
By 2029, Brazil aims to have one-third of its added generation capacity derive from wind. As of 2019, Brazil’s installed wind capacity reached 15.4 GW. Yet recent assessments foresee that local wind generation potential would be as high as 880 GW. In the least sunny spot in Brazil, it is possible to generate more solar energy than in the sunniest place in Germany, a leading investor in solar technology. In the years to come, one might see more Chinese projects in these sources.
到2029年，巴西的目标是使其新增发电能力的三分之一来自风能。截至2019年，巴西的风电装机容量达到了15.4GW。然而，根据最近的评估预测，当地的风力发电潜力将高达880GW。在巴西阳光最少的区域蕴含的太阳能可能比太阳能技术领域全球领先的德国阳光最充足的地方还多。在未来的几年里，人们可能会在这些资源上看到更多的中国项目。
Given China’s appetite to explore Brazil’s rich renewable energy potential and the long-term business commitments made in the last decade, Chinese companies will continue to be decisive players in the overall expansion of the Brazilian electricity sector for decades to come. This could be a sizeable contribution to Brazil’s plans to further expand the role of renewables in its energy matrix and to foster investments in green technology.
鉴于中国对发掘巴西丰富的可再生能源的强烈兴趣，以及过去10年做出的长期商业承诺，未来几十年，中国企业将继续在巴西电力行业整体扩张中发挥决定性作用。这可能对巴西进一步扩大可再生能源在其能源矩阵中的作用，并促进绿色技术投资的计划做出重大贡献。
资料来源：Diálogo Chino
